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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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Ok no one really thinks its the random number generator per se. I have always maintained that whomever decided to use transition matrices for Blitz Mode, juiced the matrix elements so that more often than not, large armies are waylayed by much smaller ones a disproportionate amount of time beyond normal probabilities or expected values. Its not the dice algorithm, rather the human being that input the values into the matrix elements. We need to know the algorithm for that, not the Twister.

 

Well said, Mark. It is true that the mind only remembers significant things. And of course the people coming to the forums are ones who were pissed that something they didn't expect happened. It doesn't mean the algorithm is off. However, there does seem to be some issue with 1's being rolled less often, as the recorded dice rolls on all 6 of my accounts show less % in 1's than others. This wasn't the case prior to the implementation of the new algorithm, which was over a year ago now. But I do remember my dice rolls way back in the day were 16% across the board. Now it's like 14% for 1's and 17% for all others evenly. Perhaps SMG did something to give defenders a little bit more boost. As slightly less 1's would give more favor ability to the tie winner (defender) but clearly not enough to offset the actual advantage to the attacker, which can be seen in every game you play. It is also possible that coincidence has happened to me but there have been others making the claim and I've made other test accounts to check it. It's still such a slight variation that it isn't enough to notice.

Now, when they did their last update there was a flaw in the blitz. Every blitz move made against a territory with 1 was always a loss of 1 to the attacker before taking the territory. It didn't take me long to figure that out. I complained and it was fixed within a day.That flaw was obvious. No clue how the dice could possibly be flawed like that but I'm sure this game is a mess of code anyway.

 


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For anyone who actually wants to check whether the dice algorithm is off, there is a fair amount of data out there in the form of recorded games on youtube.  For example https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBsz1fgsud-bWjuf4PRr1KA.

I play risk just about every day and I don't think the algorithm is off.  I also record and review my games (but don't typically post to youtube).  I haven't noticed anything strange about the dice.  Sure, I lose battles I'm statistically favored to win, but that's how probability works.  What would truly be strange and questionable is if we didn't ever lose battles we were favored to win.  Humans are very good at noticing out of the ordinary things but not so good at noticing things that are as we would expect.  It's like how everyone has this idea that most drivers are idiots because they see a few dumb drivers each day.  But they don't remember all of the the good drivers, who are actually the vast majority.  The bad drivers stick out in our memory, but the good ones don't even though they're far more common.

My guess is all this complaining about "bad dice" is unintentional selective memory.  I bet if everyone complaining about bad dice would actually do some real number crunching and calculate the probabilities of their rolls using data from their games, they would discover that what happens in the game is very close to what would be expected from fair dice.

In future games try to pay specific attention to how often the dice behave more or less as you would expect.  In my experience it's the vast majority of the time.

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David, can you provide your data on these bad rolls?

 

I have been playing this game for a long time. WORST "random" die roll algorithms of any app. WORST. Love every other aspect of this game but have experienced the most ridiculous rolling on a regular basis. Throw strategy out the window.
There's one way to find out if it's offensive and defensive together. Make 2 accounts. Make one single roll on each, record the rolls for offensive/defensive, then check your dice stats to confirm. Anyone got time to confirm this? I'm curious if your stats are only what you roll (yours + defender), only your offense, your offense + your defense.

 


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Yes grandmasters have their rolls skewed away from 1's but it isn't an advantage because everyone else's rolls work that way as well.

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 So I just wanted to show everyone that this game is clearly altering rolls in favor of GrandMasters. Here are the screenshots to prove it. 666 games and only 15% rolls on 1's!!!!! Obvious flaw in the SMG dice algorithm. I've had this account since before SMG changed the code and it was all 16% until they changed it. Now I'm rolling a lot more 6's, 5's and apparently 2's. Fix your code SMG! Grandmasters don't deserve an advantage over everyone else lol

I believe Hasbro is the name of the company who had it before SMG. I don't know if they merged or if SMG just got the game from them but it was maybe a year ago when this happened.

 

 I prefer 5 min games, although 3 mins is usually enough to kill 5 players in one turn. The problem is less people seem to want to join 5 min games.

Awesome. We'll wait 2 years or so and maybe get it. :)

 

I already made a feature request to increse the turn timer by a few seconds when you make a Blitz attack. That would totally solve it and is super easy to implement.

 

Dude, I only play 5/8 minute games - solves the time limit problem!


When did SMG take over, and from who? Aren't they the original developers of the game?

Agree that I want true Dice rolls.The only thing I'll put in is back before SMG took over, when you did a Blitz with 50+ troops, it would hang your device for a split moment trying to calculate all of the rolls. It was a little aggravating especially if it was on a slow device (I now only use fast ones) so I can see why they wanted to go with a probability matrix.If they'd fix the timer to allow you to finish a whole turn without letting people delay the game then I'd be all over going back to a slower but more real system. If I got 5 seconds for every roll I did I could actually win games that I normally would win without these damn time limits.

 

Yes that's what I suspect as well. Blitz probably does not contribute much or anything to the statistics, but only SMG really knows.


The other thing is, I understand that they have some kind of control comparison and that is basically the limit if you did the battles an infinite amount of times. That is to what you refer as expected average.


And now their algorithm gives results, which can differ up to 5% from this control comparison.


That's completely unacceptable in my opinion, it's certainly possible to achieve a difference less than 0.1% to true dice throw outcomes. Devices these days are so powerful that you could even run a MonteCarlo simulation, which would be pure brute force but still fast enough and accurate to these degrees.


I mean I don't want to sound like I'm only here to complain, the app is great and I really enjoy playing the game, but these numbers just seem off and the statement does not really make me more confident in the accuracy of the algorithm -_-

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