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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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Ok so I got out my risk board and I played with my seven year old he won ! With all my strategy and skills I lost I am doomed! Because I suck at rolling dice I roll ones he Rolls sixes Hum....... but seriously while letting him win I kept a close eye on my army size and his plus the outcome and how real dice work .... I had 28 he had 20. At the end I had 7 Another one I had 9 he had 2 at the end he had 2 I had one that can't be right if I have 9 I should win... My point..... it is hard to understand when u turn in cards lay down 23 troops gonna do some damage . you are attacking ones twos fours maybe a five or a nine 23 should be more than enough wrong size does not matter dice do..... I have watched my fellow players get destroyed 4 vs 11 4 attacker he won legendary! The dice add that element of better not waste these armies . roll it out if you have no back up well better not risk it!,, If you can understand me try getting your risk board out setting up some battles get your kids to do it watch the epic battles it's a real uncertain thing ups and downs un less your my little sister she's so good at rolling dice I quit playing against her !!!!!

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Can I ask the class how we can have a percent or any way of knowing we will win! Is this because someone sat down with three dice in one hand and two in the other with a friend recording the rolls and then setting value to that... saying if I roll six times those six rolls will follow some kind of pattern try it I rolled a bunch of dice it was random and had no feelings for the fact that I had spent my whole night trying to out smart the master and now my whole game came down to dice deciding if I would win or lose and I lost ! But as I lost I realized I had played the guy that was ranked 1000 so maybe it was my strategy my methods maybe winning takes more than dice.... it takes anticipation of all moves having army's stockpiled and of course just learning ones enemy.
ok I got it! " For the love of god, pull yourself together and do not look at things so darkly: the first step backward makes a poor impression in the army, second step is dangerous, and the third becomes death. "Fredrick the great 1712-86 in a letter to a general.

Is everyone on here stupid? The probability of rolling a 6 isn't as simple as 16% EVERY time. The dynamic changes once the condition is met. So rolling a 6 twice in a row diminishes further, and on and on.


So when an opponent rolls a single 6 SEVEN times in a row, and then continues to roll 6's throughout the game in singles and doubles, it just CANNOT happen.


Not to mention, when someone battles a high number army against another, you KNOW it will be a -X+1 because there's a retarded lag. Odds are, the calculation is too much, so it crashes, thus favoring the defender, which makes no sense.


Manually roll 3 dice v 2 dice ~60 times. The odds of favor for defender is virtually impossible. So when I get an -X+1 3 out of 4 times. THAT CANNOT HAPPEN.


Those BIG -X+1 blowbacks are supposed to be an anomaly (in mathspeak, it's called an outlier, something so rare, it skews statistical data, and therefore omitted, but observed).


If it happened once in a while, that's one thing, but more often than not you'll lose everything.


Lose the stupid animation, so we can roll in 2's and 3's FAST.


Retarded animation wastes WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too much time. At the VERY minimum, allow us to DISABLE animation -- all of it.... ALL OF IT!


All SMG knows how to do is implement features that waste time. STOP IT.


There is NOBODY I have ever encountered that likes it.


SMG created the Jar Jar Binks feature of Risk.


We need the J.J. Abrams of SMG to right the course.


To the development team that implemented all these useless, time-wasting features: #$@! YOU!

MN I will give you that the probability of rolling a six is not exactly 16% for each roll. It is extactly 16.6 bar percent for each roll. That being said it is important to understand that reason for this is because when a die is rolled there are six equally probable outcomes so there is a 1/6 chance of any given number on the die being the result. When a die is rolled three times there is still a 16.6 bar percent chance of any of those numbers being the result of any of the three rolls. But when a die is rolled theee times the number of outcome sets is not 6 but 6 cubed which is 216. That means the odds of rolling theee sixes in a row is 1/216. But the three sixes outcome is not any less probable then any other combination of three numbers from the die. So three sixes is just as likely as a three, a five and a two. The latter may feel more random but it is not.

do you even stat, bro?

Of course I mean sequential combinations. Three sixes is as likely as any other sequence of three numbers. Same can be said of n sixes and any sequence of n numbers. It's is of course easier to get three different numbers than three of the same (5/9 vs 1/36 in my calculations) and easier to get n different (n
less than or equal to 6) numbers than n of the same. But I think the dice algorithm reflects this by having a 1/6 chance of any number being the result of any roll. The chance of rolling a number, say six, does not change based on what was rolled before it.

Do you play Powerball?  Nah I don't, either, I figure the odds are so stacked against me that it's a poor investment.  Why, in fact, I recently read a Time article that they are 1 in 292 million, That's what I thought, it just can't possibly happen, no one could win with those odds.  ;}


I'm disappointed that some of us have taken an opportunity to flame at the developers about all kinds of things unrelated to dice throw.  Somewhere I recall hearing they were working on new algorithms.  So why are they getting beat on after they've already agreed?


My extended family and I love the game.  We play weekly from 3 locations around the country with a phone conference on the side.  Keep up the good work developers!  I like what you have done with a game I loved back in highschool.  And all that for free.  Thank you.


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Absolutely diabolical!!! Once again i play a game only to find that the AI players are given a massive afvantage in dice throws. I hve literally just rolled with 22 armies against 3 and lost every single roll. This game is unplayable. What is worse is that SMG have known about this problem for months because they had been complaint after complaint. It is fine when u are playing against human players but if you are playing against 2 or 3 AIs it makes the game impossible to play because human player will be exposed more than others. Yesterday i played a game where red quit the game after round 4. The AI sat there just reinforcing until it had 51 armies and there was 2 humans left and then attacked wiping me out even tho i had 16 armies on each of the borders of america (56 in total in america). I will never purchase anything from SMG or hasbro ever again!!!
If you think there were "many times" you had a "97-99% chance to win" you don't understand probabilities.
In any video game, if the settings are set to "Expert," (or difficult, or All-Madden, or Superhuman...you get it) shouldn't you expect more outliers to show up? Does the dice rolling algorithm vary according to your settings? In games created/hosted by individuals (i.e., all multiplayer games), settings are chosen. The board upon which you will play, how many seconds a turn may last, and the difficulty level are all options to choose in the settings. It's a video game about a board game, folks. Expect some video game rules to apply. It would be nice if the difficulty settings were visible for folks choosing to join the game, like the other settings are (120 min., fixed/progressive cards). If this were not the case, there would be zero reason for the difficulty level to be a choice. I think I may have answered all of your questions here.
SMG has clearly stated that they do not alter dice rolls or weight them.
Well, huh? How 'bout that. Back to my hole, I guess.
Probability dictates every single dice roll is independent of that which occurred before it... each dice roll of a 6 on one of 5 die doesn't increase or decrease the odds the next roll. It's hard to compare rolls/dice. I've played the game in real life for years like 30 and seen insane hot streaks of 1v10 etc defending. It happens...

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