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Well I had a game today, where 9 lost vs 1 twice. I mean the chances of this happening is somewhere in the ball park of 1:1000000. I don't think I'm that lucky. I don't get how it can be this hard to approximate true dice rolls. Any decent programmer can write an algorithm that can do it in less than an hour ;/
Good morning Reginald,
I have also played this game for 40 years starting with the board game; my brother and I had a rivalry and played hours upon hours. Our generation grew up playing many many games that include dice such as monopoly... guess what role is statistically the most probable 7 right.... We grew up playing cards which is also a game of statistics. The point is our generation is uniquely positioned to make observations about the probability of dice rolls without being PHDs in math; we have a pretty good sense for when things don't seem right. Further you don't need to have a PHD to look up the probability of winning a 3 attacking dice on 2 or 1 defending dice where the defender wins a tie; the probablility information for ALL POSSIBLE outcomes is readily available on the internet.
While there are many responses and opinions on this board about this specific topic, please be aware that some of those posting also understand that when we played the board game we got frustrated by the results that went counterintuitive to odds. AND we blamed our brother for not holding the dice high enough off the table or dropping the dice on the floor, surely that doesn't count..... My point Reginald is that those of us that have played this game also understand that our emotional response to upside down odds is not warranted if we play enough games and the results SMOOTH out over time. Do I get frustrated when I get autosetup with horrible board position, on top of multiple 5 card only turn ins in a row, coupled by the only option I get on fixed turn in is three infantry. Do I get frustrated in the same game when my start position is last of 6 players, YEP because it is a BIG disadvantage. Should I conclude that everything in the game is stacked against me because I've had upside down odds for one game, NO! One game isn't a large enough sample set to make that conclusion. The key to this whole topic is are the people posting on this topic just being emotional or are they going a step deeper and looking at the hard number results.
So I embarked on that quest. I asked myself if I was gettting emotional or if that patterns I was seeing were correct; that I was getting CONSISTENT upside down odds on autoattack where I had the clear advantage. I tracked 2 games then 4 then 6 then 10 and the results I got were not consitent with probability. When I attacked 3 dice on 2 I was averaging around a 50% win ratio. When I attacked 3 dice on 1 I was around 60%. Those results are not consistent with probable outcomes; I could give you the probability for each of those outcomes but I will let you look it up yourself. I did the same thing with board positioning, turn positioning etc and etc. There were times I felt I was getting a raw deal but when I tracked a large enough sample set I realized that I was wrong and I was being emotional; everything is against me.....
I reached out to SMG support and asked what probability they expected for each scenario and while I could share these emails with you TRUST me when I tell you SMG's support staff have no clue what dice probability should be. I was told that if I attacked 3 dice on one that I have a 90% chance of winning, REALLY Reginald, really! I could only wish that were the case but I glad it isn't because that would mean when my opponent attacked me he would get those same odds and that isn't just statistically wrong it is galactically wrong and you don't need to a PHD to intuitively know it's wrong. OK, OK that is just one guy who is 20 something that understands programming and game gliching but really isn't up on dice probability right? NO! I went back and forth for over a month with different analysts and they all quoted me different odds for the same scenearios in the same email thread and not once but over and over. And none of them ever quoted me the correct odds even after I provided them links to Risk statistical odds by people that actually have PHDs in math.
So when I provided my spreadsheet of a sample set of 10 games and my results to a higher level analyst that seemed to understand he said he would have to look into it because those results shouldn't happen that way. While you got a bad 10 game snapshot you say. No I did this over and over painstakenly with basically the same results. Can this happen, well of course. But is it probable, NO. When you start going down this road you have to be careful. Can you attack 100 on 1 and lose, YES it can happen but is it probable NO! Dont' tell me if that happened you wouldn't be in a state of shock even though you no it's possible.... That event isn't wrong but if happens with frequency IT IS!
I don't get freaked out when I attack 5 on 1 and lose all my men. I get frustrated yes because it is statistically improbable. But if this scenario happens a couple times per game over multiple games isn't it reasonalbe to say well that is an improbable pattern if it continues and if it continues game over game over game isn't fair for me to ask Support what's going on.
Reginald I have played over a 1,000 games on the SMG site and I can tell you that smoothed out over time my odds are roughly 50% attacking 3 dice on 2 consistently. Have I had one or two games or dice rolls where I obliterate the other guy, YEP. But it is just as emotional to EXPECT those statistically improbable odds to continue.
When I asked an analyst what their dice algorithm odds were he said that he couldn't provide it because that was proprietary. Well that's odd dice probability is NOT proprietary and that answer is problematic.
I too have had to play my same turn over several times becausee I kept losing connection, I concluded I was getting a weak wifi signal in that room and simply stopped playing the game there. I've also uncovered a bug where I lost wifi and when I reconnected my opponent was granted a significant amount of men and this was confirmed by support. So there are problems with the game to be sure. But pound for pound I'd rather play it than the board game any day of the week because I don't have 2 hours to play one game.