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I have been collecting data on battle outcomes. I agree with SMG (actually can't disagree with their assertion) that dice roles are random. What is specifically not random are battle outcomes. For example, I have observed a 7 attacking 2 battle lose 4 of 19 times (21%). I should have seen that happen *maybe* 1 time. This happens too frequently and across too many 'dice paring' combinations to be random.
In short, the dice rolls may be (pseudo)random, but the battle outcomes are EMPIRICALLY not.
(MATLAB available on request)
I have played Risk for 40 years now and love the game. I used to love playing the online version as the autodice roll solves the time issue known to all that have ever played the board game. However it introduced the issue that the results I have recieved in the 150 plus games I've played are not anywhere near realistic. I have raised this with support and went back and forth with a staff that don't really seem to grasp dice probability. I have come to the point where I had to just delete the game and quit because the concept of strategy is ruined by the randomness of results in the dice. I'm not talking about one bad roll or two or one or five lost games I'm talking about 150 of them. I became so frustrated with the upsidedown odds that I kept track of my results in a spreadsheet and shared them with support. In all the games I have played I would say I win a 3 Dice on 1 attack under 50% of the time; it is the same with a 3 Dice on 2 attack. I can play brilliantly the whole game go to take out my opponent and lose a 30 on 10 attack and I'm out of the game. If this happened once I could live with it; hell if it happened 5 times I would be fine. But crazy results happen every game multiple times a game. For those that say it the same for everyone I simply don't agree. If that was true I would expect to win on defense but that doesn't happen on average either. I could go into the stats but it is a waste of time. When an attack or defense is just a random outcome it reduces a game that is based on strategy to one of luck. How about instead of placing our men, plotting out who to attack and when, when to turn in etc. etc. we just all roll a die at the beginning of the game and whoever gets the highest wins the game. In all honesty that is what this online SMG versions boils down to. I pulled my hair out going back and forth with support until I read posts on this forum and realized it wasn't just me. I give up SMG wins.
This needs to get fixed. I just had 24 troops wiped out by 6 attackers. Then on the flip side I lost 12 people attacking 1. It happens more often than not. The odds just are not in the favor of the way this is set up. It seems to be an ongoing issue.
I used to like to this game, but deleted all Apps just because these random probabilities made me more angry than happy about gaming. I used to quit every time probabilities were completely arbitrary, then I stopped playing the game. The one start review on Apple store from me. A small revenge for taking my euros.