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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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I have been collecting data on battle outcomes. I agree with SMG (actually can't disagree with their assertion) that dice roles are random. What is specifically not random are battle outcomes. For example, I have observed a 7 attacking 2 battle lose 4 of 19 times (21%).  I should have seen that happen *maybe* 1 time. This happens too frequently and across too many 'dice paring' combinations to be random. 


In short, the dice rolls may be (pseudo)random, but the battle outcomes are EMPIRICALLY not. 


(MATLAB available on request)


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Not true dice rules - please update.

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I have played Risk for 40 years now and love the game.  I used to love playing the online version as the autodice roll solves the time issue known to all that have ever played the board game.  However it introduced the issue that the results I have recieved in the 150 plus games I've played are not anywhere near realistic.  I have raised this with support and went back and forth with a staff that don't really seem to grasp dice probability.  I have come to the point where I had to just delete the game and quit because the concept of strategy is ruined by the randomness of results in the dice.  I'm not talking about one bad roll or two or one or five lost games I'm talking about 150 of them.  I became so frustrated with the upsidedown odds that I kept track of my results in a spreadsheet and shared them with support.  In all the games I have played I would say I win a 3 Dice on 1 attack under 50% of the time; it is the same with a 3 Dice on 2 attack.  I can play brilliantly the whole game go to take out my opponent and lose a 30 on 10 attack and I'm out of the game.  If this happened once I could live with it; hell if it happened 5 times I would be fine.  But crazy results happen every game multiple times a game.  For those that say it the same for everyone I simply don't agree.  If that was true I would expect to win on defense but that doesn't happen on average either.  I could go into the stats but it is a waste of time.  When an attack or defense is just a random outcome it reduces a game that is based on strategy to one of luck.  How about instead of placing our men, plotting out who to attack and when, when to turn in etc. etc. we just all roll a die at the beginning of the game and whoever gets the highest wins the game.  In all honesty that is what this online SMG versions boils down to.  I pulled my hair out going back and forth with support until I read posts on this forum and realized it wasn't just me.  I give up SMG wins.


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This needs to get fixed.  I just had 24 troops wiped out by 6 attackers.  Then on the flip side I lost 12 people attacking 1.  It happens more often than not.  The odds just are not in the favor of the way this is set up.  It seems to be an ongoing issue.  


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Something happened recently with the rolls to greatly favor the attacker. It's very frustrating. That's not how it really is in Risk.

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Professional stochastic modeler here; this game is a complete sham and an utter waste of everyone’s time. The original comment on 97-98% probabilities becoming 50/50 is at the heart of the issue. Sure, the rolls might be evenly distributed but the NBA would blush at the level of “fixing,” going on. Played 100+ games over the last week, and was both the beneficiary and the victim of this incredible design flaw. The app version of the game is like bowling with the bumpers randomly going up and down; DON’T BOTHER! YOU HAVE YOUR WHOLE LIFE TO LIVE! Shame on SMG for failing to hear their customers for OVER TWO YEARS. Look forward to seeing them go under and hoping a competent developer gets the rights. You hear that SMG? You’re as valuable as a 20 on 1 blitz attack that yields 1:1. Useless, frustrating, but most of all, INCOMPETENT. PSA: joined this forum to say YOU HAVE YOUR ENTIRE LIFE TO LIVE!

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After reading this thread, I began watching more and more battles. Attackers 6 vs 1, 7 vs 2, 8 vs 3 lose very often. I began rolling dice regularly instead of blitz. There are WAY to many sixes being rolled by defenders, especially when rolling only one dice. The number distribution isn't close to what is being shown on the profile page. This really is a huge problem, and I hope smgstudio takes the problem seriously because its messing up games, especially in the first few rounds when troops are at a huge premium. Love the game, but the dice are off because defenders are rolling too many sixes.

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I think the game used the do true dice rolls until SMG changed it to the current system. I’ve also experienced a lot of heavy losses in lopsided battles lately like 20 some lost against less then ten. Really messes me up in progressive from time to time. Seems to be happening too often but I can’t say for sure. There are also a lot of very good results like ten or less lost against 20 or more which seems really good even with the attacker rolling three. Almost as if the really good and really bad are supposed to cancel each other out. I guess those outliers are just the result of the probabilities SMG put on the rolls. The 3v2 is the important case so I guess we should run some simulations with those probabilities to learn more about it. Get a chart showing how many armies are left from a given attack by percentages with a million simulations. Calculate sequences of attacks for deciding whether to try an elimination. I can probably do something like that when I have a day off.

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I used to like to this game, but deleted all Apps just because these random probabilities made me more angry than happy about gaming. I used to quit every time probabilities were completely arbitrary, then I stopped playing the game. The one start review on Apple store from me. A small revenge for taking my euros.


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The results of my dice rolling is NOT within +-5% like the rules claim they are! I have a 21% chance of rolling 1's and a 15% chance of rolling every other number... This is certainly NOT acceptable! I have lost countless attacks due to this very messed up dice rolling system!
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It's not the random number generator but how the algorithm uses the random numbers that is far from board play in Blitz mode. SMG offered some clues their Blitz algorithm wasn't true to form. My advice is to avoid Blitz.

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Ive played about a thousand games and its only when SMG took over. They implemented a transition matrix approach to Blitz, and although computationally less costly, isnt true to the board game. I also have a PhD in engineering, specifically in "stochastic sequences". So the fact of the matter, the RNG may be good, but the Blitz algorithm that uses it isnt truely random.

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What was changed with the new version? All of a sudden I have a significantly increased chance of rolling a one. Before the update I had a 16% equal chance of all probabilities. What was wrong with the last probability algorithm and what was changed to "improve" it? Seem reasonable to provide us with some info SMG!

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I made an assumption that this discussion revolves around the 'blitz' feature. My complaint, and my support of this feature request is that the blitz mechanics are broken. In my experience with this game, the normal rolling is balanced enough, seemingly actual random dice results - for better or worse. Blitz is the feature where the rolls completely crap themselves. I hate when this happens - nearly every game - whether it's in my favor, against me, or when I'm neutral to the rolls. Ruins the game and many players just quit after that kind of event. I've seen a few people reply here suggesting that this is a subjective question of fairness or implying that some people are just sore losers. Let me say, that's not the case. This is a feature request for real and actual dice mechanics for the blitz feature - and if it's not already as such for the regular rolls then an enhancement request for this too. I suspect since the developers have this request as 'in progress' that they have already validated that the existing game mechanics/dice algorithms - whether regular rolling or blitz - are faulty.

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Transition Matrix approach is the worst because 10 armies vs 2 in a 3-dice vs 2 usually wins in successive independent events. Witb the TM, they weight the outcome by 2/10, which means 20% in a [0 1] indep. uniform random number multiplied by 2/3 will win 12% or 1/8 of the time. The move uses 1 random number and is conputationally cheaper for their server. Its a money thing for them. It would cost them more time (money) to represent Blitz accurately.

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