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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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It may also be worth noting that they said they now have a system in place that records highly unlikely outcomes so they can keep track of how often they are occurring in actual gameplay. This means they are at least not blind to the results their new algorithm is producing and should hopefully be able to asses things and adjust accordingly.

Has that newer update actually been released yet (I don't see it in the Google Play Store yet)? Getting sick of loosing 20 to 4 battles against the AI, whereby the defending AI doesn't loose a single troop :(
Dunno, I'm on iOS. Version is 1.10.38 released on March 30th.
Hmmm... seems that they are slow to release the update for Android. That being said, Just an update, currently three 6-player single-player games on the previously mentioned device: 1 = 27% 2 = 14% 3 = 14% 4 = 14% 5 = 14% 6 = 14% Nah, nuthin' to see here, move along...
So I feel dumb but i just realized that a bias towards 1's actually benefits the defender since they win on the tie. It doesn't even matter which number is more likely to appear. As long as the algorithm is defective, it benefits the defender. So right now, an aggressive player on Android is gonna have a tougher time against an Apple device player, since rolls are calculated based on the attacker.

 

Yep. After one game I rolled each number on the dice the EXACT same percentage. No way in hell that would happen in reality. Just because you have the same chance at getting any number on any roll, doesn't mean you will roll each number the same number of times. The random element is missing.
Yes I was playing with a friend and it was something like 15v4 and she lost all but 4 of her troops of this was an actual battle she would have like 12 left

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More proof that the dice rolling is screwed... it is almost statistically impossible to loose more troops than you have killed when your total win-to-loss ratio is almost 2:1. THAT IS, unless that you are rolling more 1's (or other low numbers) than any other number. I have seen this on two different devices, as well as a buddy of mine telling me that it is EXACTLY the same on his. And the funny thing is, I have NEVER seen anything of the sort (stats as mentioned above, AS WELL AS numerous questionable dice rolls) on ANY of the other Risk games that I play (on any other Android Risk or Risk like game, se8veral Risk dice rollers that I have installed on my tablet, Risk for Windows 95, Risk II for Windows 98, OR EVEN Risk for DOS - *CIRCA 1988*). As a matter of fact, I've been so sick and tired of these problems (as well as the problems when attempting to join a multiplayer game) that just about ALL of the Risk playing that I have been doing for the past few weeks is either the REAL board game, or the old classic Risk for DOS. Come on, SMG, my buddy and I PAID for it, FIX IT.
Not true dice rules - please update.

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I read through many of the previous posts and can provide a more thoughtful statement than what I posted last night. The biggest issue objection to a more predictable algorithm seems to be the lack of luck. That is easily addressed with statistical concepts that have been in place to randomize clinical trials since the 1970's. The algorithm can work as true dice 'x' percent of time, and then other times work disproportionately. For example, 90% of the time the algorithm would work as true dice odds, and randomly 10% of the time it could work disproportionately in favor of the underdog. This would allow luck, but preserve rewarding smarter strategy over luck/desperation (it is a strategic game). Plus, true dice odds has a huge element of luck anyway (ask anyone who has played craps). The point is to avoid obscene outcomesmes like 10 losing to 2 on an attack that are nearly statistically impossible and punish the successful strategy to create such an imbalanced face off.
I believe the dice has gotten better since this problem first started. I don't know if they changed anything or not. But I do feel like there is a higher chance of unexpected results than there used to be. I'm much more paranoid about taking on likely to win but not definite to win odds. A good example is 10 to 2. In the old algorithm you could still get burned with this but I'll watch games where several people in the same round get burned by this but then it doesn't happen for the rest of the game. I wish they'd just say what the algorithm is based on and I think everyone would be at ease. Everytime I roll all 1's I get annoyed because I do see it pretty often when i'm doing roll for roll.

 

The dice rolls are completely ridiculous. The amount of times I lose all my troops on a 10 v 2 battles is just plain annoying and in no way reflects the odds. The icing on the cake was just now when I had 23 v 5 and I lost all my troops and they only lost 2. The game is just unplayable when it's like this.

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SMG - Please use the Merseinne Twister for a RNG.

 

In my most recent game, I had 32 troops blitz 7. I lost all 32, they lost 0. Using an odds generator: Long-Term Battle Simulation Attacker Won: 100% of the time (357727 of 357737 trials) Average Conquering Army Size: 25 Defender Won: 0% of the time (10 of 357737 trials) Unfortunately for me, this seems to happen much more often than 10 out of 357000 times. Like 3 out of 5 at least.

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Well, no matter how stacked the odds are, there is only one case where attacker loses all and defender loses none. You should play the lottery if you are getting a 1 out of 357,737 chance 3/5 of the time.


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