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Discussions RISK Global Domination Feature Requests
Implemented

New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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(continuation of "Moral of the story") ,,,as Risk is PREDOMINATELY a DICE game, hence, the dice need to function properly (like they do in all of the other PC/Android Risk and Risk-like games that I play).
Before SMG changed up the dice weren't they random roll for roll (Or acceptably random anyway)? I never understood why they were changed. Now my accounts have their percentages skewed to the higher numbers how does that reflect real life dice? Before they were all 16's. Of course I remember people clamoring for change back then but I think it used to be a much more satisfactory algorithm. On spectator mode it is a good way to spy on suspicious players. I took down the #2 player Wednesday by joining his game and reporting him (He played two of three humans and had a bot). His secondary was ranked 118 so he was getting points from beating that every game. As far as I can tell SMG deducts massive amounts of ranking points from cheaters so it is almost like banning them. Besides if they keep their old name we can remember them so that is nice. I am confident that the rest of the top ten and many other top accounts are cheaters as well but they are inactive or smarter. Still if I see any top accounts playing I think I will crash their party.
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Guys, its not the random number generator itself, but the Blitz algorithm that uses the numbers. SMG has said it uses a "transition matrix" algorithm. This algorithm short cuts the number of manual rolls required to finish an opponent. The TM embeds probabilities for every attacker-defender combination and the random number between 0-1 is rolles to see what "matrix element" is tested. Then another random number is thrown to see if the test is good or not. So at least two random numbers are used in the algorithm, one to decide the interaction probability and one to test the win/lose criteria for that particular interaction. This is called a "Markov Chain". I think SMG doesnt want to tax their servers and use tbis simplistic yet inaccurate or nonrealistic approach to save compute time. However, the intelligent programmer could devise a scheme to utilize parallel computing in Blitz mode such that more transition probabilities are determined and tested simultaneously. This is the way they do it in real life with chemical kinetics, radiation transport, and ocean/environmental science. SMGs opted for a quick and simplistic approach to the algorithm makes the game not enjoyable in the long run. Why dont they fix the algorithm? The random number stride is long enough, but tbe way they use the numbers is highly suspect. I use the Merseinne Twister and even though we use the same generator, my algorithms that use the numbers alway sample from a true probability distribution.
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Is it really that bad for the server to just use the PRNG for each roll, even in blitz? Isn't that the most accurate approach?
@SectaOne, From what I have heard, the dice were random roll for roll before the first initial big update that included the "probability matrix" for Blitz. It's hard for me to comment on the old algorithm though.., as I first purchased and started playing SMG Risk only a few short days before the update. All that I know now for 100% certain is that Blitz dice rolling is TOTALLY amis.
This thread started back before the update that changed dice. You can see all the people that demanded change and as I recall some were happy with it. I don't think the dice are good now. But I think that no matter what SMG does there will always be people insisting on change. That is why it is important for them to get it right so that they can stand behind their algorithm.
A lot of complaining came as soon as they made a "new algorithm." People were complaining prior to that too. People are always going to complain because they don't realize that odds are not going to be consistent. It is possible for an army of 23 to lose against an army of 3. They want to complain unfair as soon as they get that one bad roll. All I know is when they first updated it, I was getting a lot of triple 1 rolls. They fixed that at least.

 

Yes the complaints will never stop but if SMG had a solid algorithm they could stand behind it. I don't get why they changed it to begin with and why they didn't test the (at the time) new algorithm more thoroughly before pulling the trigger. Every time they have to change it their credibility goes down, least until they can show they have it right. But since some people will always complain vocally even if there is nothing wrong it will be a long time before they can live this down. They need to act to fix the issue as soon as they can but must be careful not to act so quickly that they mess up again. So why not use the PRNG for each die at least until they can get a more accurate matrix?
Complaining or not, the current "probability matrix" is screwed. The dice need to be RANDOM, roll for roll. And, more proof that it is screwed, a copy 'n' paste of mine from earlier in this thread, along with a newer screenshot: It is statistically impossible to loose more troops than you have killed when your total win-to-loss ratio is 2:1 (or greater). THAT IS, unless that you are rolling more 1's (or other low numbers) than any other number. I have seen this on two different devices, as well as a buddy of mine (who's win-to-loss ratio is **WAY** higher than 2:1) telling me that it is EXACTLY the same on his. *NONE* of the other DOS/Windows/Android Risk and Risk-like games that I play (that can display these types of stats) exhibit this behavior. And, like I've posted before, EVEN DOS Risk, circa 1989... yeah, folks, even back in 1989 under DOS they got the PRNG right.
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The dice is a primary issue - to the extent that it could make or break SMG... 


As this is officially sponsored by Hasbro - they must have a substantial financial stake in the game


Either SMG paid Hasbro a lot of money for the franchise - or Hasbro didn't take any money up-front, opting instead to take a big slice of the ongoing revenue it generates...


This means that the game has to be successful and bring in the money!


The flawed Dice will significantly hamper the profitability of the game - which may force SMG and Hasbro to give up on it entirely...which would be bad news for everybody!

 I am pretty sure SMG bought this from Hasbro. I got on board when it was only Hasbro. Or maybe they merged. I didn't really look into it; I just know the name changed at one point.


If it helps, I had a game where I had about 35 troops or so going up against 60. I rolled one by one, since the goal was to just beat him down as much as I could without going below 3 troops on my territory. He lost 3 and I lost about 27 to 30 or whatever it was before the timer ran out. I think you guys need to stop blaming Blitz so much. There's a case where it was ridiculous for me as the attacker to lose so much. And I did it roll by roll. So it can happen and it did to me.



Well I had a game today, where 9 lost vs 1 twice. I mean the chances of this happening is somewhere in the ball park of 1:1000000. I don't think I'm that lucky. I don't get how it can be this hard to approximate true dice rolls. Any decent programmer can write an algorithm that can do it in less than an hour ;/

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FYI, the new algorithm has been programmed to explicitly give Novice users an unfair advantage by heavily biasing their rolls away from 1’s. I’ve investigated this thoroughly and it’s undeniable—create a new account, play a game, then check your stats, you can easily observe this yourself. It’s obviously a highly unethical attempt at keeping new players happy and encouraging them to buy the full game. I suggest you ban all Novice users from any games you create if you want a fair playing field. Please open a new ticket and complain to game creators. We need to hammer them until they decide to be truthful with their paying customers and undo this cheap marketing trick that ruins the game for everyone else!
Have you been able to advance a player to beginner rank without the novice making all but one roll so that you can test dice rolls at the beginner level with a clean slate?

What happens when a novice rolls again a novice? The attacker wins most of the time? So it's all about offense for novices?

I boot novices anyway. And usually beginners. and if SMG would take a moment to program filtering I'd only host games for masters and grandmasters. But you know, your mom.

 

Briand, That level of complexity is not needed to test what I’m talking about. It’s a simple biasing away from rolling 1’s for any user with a Novice rank, doesn’t matter who they are rolling against or in what scenario. Create a new account, play one game as a Novice, check stats — You will find roughly a 12% rolling of 1’s and roughly 17% rolls for every other number. Create any number of new accounts to test this and you will find that distribution bias every time (keep in mind probability still applies so you may not end up with those exact numbers but something close).
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