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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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I have not been able to win ONE game since I started. put 8 hours into i think. Maybe that's just cuz I'm not good. but i reall just don't get it lol

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Ive played about a thousand games and its only when SMG took over. They implemented a transition matrix approach to Blitz, and although computationally less costly, isnt true to the board game. I also have a PhD in engineering, specifically in "stochastic sequences". So the fact of the matter, the RNG may be good, but the Blitz algorithm that uses it isnt truely random.

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Well of course everyone gets the same "advantage" or "disadvantage" but if the dice aren't rolling as expected, strategies may need to be changed. In this case, the slight variances in 1's wouldn't change gameplay much. It just means that in small battles that defender has slightly better edge than if the dice were exactly as they should be. It's not enough to sway me from playing, obviously.

Actually, the greatest flaw in my opinion is how long it takes to roll. Your choice is either roll and run out of time or take a risk with a Blitz. In desperate measures, Blitz is fine but sometimes I only want to attack if I can continue to advance. And it's not often I'm willing to attack with only 2 or 1 left when the defender may still have say, 8 or more. They need rapid rolling for these circumstances which happen to me a lot in gameplay. Sometimes, I'm just beating down armies so the next turn can't be offensive. Odds are in favor of the attacker. I always take the offense when I know there's going to be lashback (typically only when it's 1v1)

 


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There's one way to find out if it's offensive and defensive together. Make 2 accounts. Make one single roll on each, record the rolls for offensive/defensive, then check your dice stats to confirm. Anyone got time to confirm this? I'm curious if your stats are only what you roll (yours + defender), only your offense, your offense + your defense.

 


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Well I had a game today, where 9 lost vs 1 twice. I mean the chances of this happening is somewhere in the ball park of 1:1000000. I don't think I'm that lucky. I don't get how it can be this hard to approximate true dice rolls. Any decent programmer can write an algorithm that can do it in less than an hour ;/


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I used to like to this game, but deleted all Apps just because these random probabilities made me more angry than happy about gaming. I used to quit every time probabilities were completely arbitrary, then I stopped playing the game. The one start review on Apple store from me. A small revenge for taking my euros.


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Here is my evidence
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Kevin, Im not one to advocate SMGs methods for dice, however what you explained pretty much invalidates what I have learned 9 years of university study in mathematics, probability, statistics, and a topic called "stochastic processes. First off, dice rolls are independent events. That being said, the likelihood of rolling any specific number on one die is equally likely. The issue isnt the RNG, which if Im correct, is the Merseinne Twister, the same one I use in Monte Carlo type simuations in my work.There may be some cognitive belief that the rolls give apparent short term patterns, however its a sure bet that the more rolls are made, the more the likelihood is a Uniform Distribution i.e. evenly distributed in equal likelihood in what is known as the Law of Large Numbers. Ive played over 3k games and have noticed anomalies in Blitz Mode. This is because SMG doesn't use a truly realistic Markov Transition agorithm for Blitz. Now that being said SMG likes to conflate issues when people bring up dice rolls. Its not the RNG for each roll but the values of the matrix elements in the Transition matrix that they, human beings have assigned or "biased". For example lets say you are attacking with 10 armies on a country that has 3 armies. Several calculations involving RNGs take place. First the number of dice you choose as an attacker up to 3, is a human input. Then a "roll outcome is simulated. A random number is generated, and the outcome is determined depending if that number, evenly distributed between 1 and 0, is either greater or equal to the likelihood of the specific outcome. Cheaters and hackers that design their APIs have learned to adjust outcomes in their favor by altering the likelihoods of outcomes in their favor. This is done by biasing the specific values for the Transition Matrix elements that govern the specific situation. In a true Markov process, or chain, the next outcome only depends on the present state, and not history. SMG in my opinion hasn't done their due diligence in preventing hacking APIs that adjust Transition matrix element values, or have designed a purposly flawed Transition Matrix apart from realistic board condition. The moral of the story is players must be cognizant of Blitz Mode anomalies not born from the RNG, but the algorithm that depends on it. If the TM is truely realistic then 10 v 3 should win more than what Blitz outcomes show in the long run. They need to document their TM element values are validated say with 100 billion dice rolls for each outcome possibility. A parallel processing computer can do that nicely. The other option would be for them to put yhe algorithm up on the cloud, but that would cost them, and eventually the player, more money.since compute time isnt free. Keep pressing these people to produce a more realistic Transition Matrix. If you see me out there, my handle is SMG Blows. Im tired of the Blitz Mode failures to reality.

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I have a fairly new account. Maybe a couple of weeks old. It is Expert / Master level, depending on my current streak. The dice are clearly biased, because I have played 400+ games now and I have 13% of 1s rolled. No way can this happen after such a huge sample size. I just don't understand how it is so difficult to implement smth. this basic and simple ;/

The dice are clearly biased to roll higher than 1.

 


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I'd love to know the difference of true odds vs their algorithm for these larger armies, mostly concerning average troops lost. How much worse does it look for the attacker as more and more troops exist? 


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Professional stochastic modeler here; this game is a complete sham and an utter waste of everyone’s time. The original comment on 97-98% probabilities becoming 50/50 is at the heart of the issue. Sure, the rolls might be evenly distributed but the NBA would blush at the level of “fixing,” going on. Played 100+ games over the last week, and was both the beneficiary and the victim of this incredible design flaw. The app version of the game is like bowling with the bumpers randomly going up and down; DON’T BOTHER! YOU HAVE YOUR WHOLE LIFE TO LIVE! Shame on SMG for failing to hear their customers for OVER TWO YEARS. Look forward to seeing them go under and hoping a competent developer gets the rights. You hear that SMG? You’re as valuable as a 20 on 1 blitz attack that yields 1:1. Useless, frustrating, but most of all, INCOMPETENT. PSA: joined this forum to say YOU HAVE YOUR ENTIRE LIFE TO LIVE!

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Side Note: The thing about pseudo random number generators... No, they are not 100% random, but they are damned close. The same can be applied to Blitz mode. Really weird how all of the other PC (DOS, as well as Windows) versions of Risk, as well as the other Risk clone and dice rolling apps that I have played/used are WAY MORE random than SMG's Risk. The DOS and Windows 3.x versions of Risk have "blitz" types of options, as do versions for Windows 95 and Windows 98, not to mention clones such as Border Siege. IN ALL OF THESE games the dice are dead on. HARDLY EVER are there "questionable rolls", single rolling and "blitz" type rolling alike. I ALSO never see "questionable rolls" in the dice rolling app "Dynamic Dice", or several JavaScript based rolls that can be found around the Internet. Morale of the story, THE DICE NEED TO BE FIXED.

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Yes grandmasters have their rolls skewed away from 1's but it isn't an advantage because everyone else's rolls work that way as well.

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Well said, Mark. It is true that the mind only remembers significant things. And of course the people coming to the forums are ones who were pissed that something they didn't expect happened. It doesn't mean the algorithm is off. However, there does seem to be some issue with 1's being rolled less often, as the recorded dice rolls on all 6 of my accounts show less % in 1's than others. This wasn't the case prior to the implementation of the new algorithm, which was over a year ago now. But I do remember my dice rolls way back in the day were 16% across the board. Now it's like 14% for 1's and 17% for all others evenly. Perhaps SMG did something to give defenders a little bit more boost. As slightly less 1's would give more favor ability to the tie winner (defender) but clearly not enough to offset the actual advantage to the attacker, which can be seen in every game you play. It is also possible that coincidence has happened to me but there have been others making the claim and I've made other test accounts to check it. It's still such a slight variation that it isn't enough to notice.

Now, when they did their last update there was a flaw in the blitz. Every blitz move made against a territory with 1 was always a loss of 1 to the attacker before taking the territory. It didn't take me long to figure that out. I complained and it was fixed within a day.That flaw was obvious. No clue how the dice could possibly be flawed like that but I'm sure this game is a mess of code anyway.

 


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Transition Matrix approach is the worst because 10 armies vs 2 in a 3-dice vs 2 usually wins in successive independent events. Witb the TM, they weight the outcome by 2/10, which means 20% in a [0 1] indep. uniform random number multiplied by 2/3 will win 12% or 1/8 of the time. The move uses 1 random number and is conputationally cheaper for their server. Its a money thing for them. It would cost them more time (money) to represent Blitz accurately.

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