A bajillion people have said the dice are flawed - and Marky Mark comes along as the Lone Crusader to say they are fine lol!
Dude, ya obviously aren't up to speed with the probabilities... check out this website for a basic primer =
http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/november22011/index.html
Like I said, we still have a level playing field as everyone has the same crappy dice (although it does mean you have to adjust the strategy of how you play) - however the monumental problem is, crappy rolls kill the popularity and profitability of the game...
Right now it seems about 5 million people have downloaded Risk - which is great... but it could/should/would be double or even triple that!
More importantly, only a small percentage of people go ahead and pay for Premium - that percentage would be much higher... if SMG fixed all the many minor and major issues!
Anyway, seeing as you're even more obsessive than me (way to go bro lol!) and have recorded/uploaded some games - I'll go through them and put the data into a public Google spreadsheet... so we can all analyse till the kangaroos come home!
Mark,
See my previous posts. The collective dice outcomes are not randomly distributed. I logged just short of 1000 battles then removed combinations that had less than 13 observations. When entering into a battle, the probability of losing 1,2,3, etc armies was significantly lower than the actual outcomes. It was persistent and repeatable. Yet, the frequency of the numbers were more or less normally distributed.
There were two distinct patterns. The distribution of armies lost for an overwhelming attacking force was bi-modal. Either the attacker didnt lose enough armies or lost way too many. Even when accounting for the lower bound.
When attacker & defender were within 3 armies of each other, if the attacker rolled lower numbers, the defender tended to roll lower numbers and the when the attacker rolled high numbers the defender rolled low number. You can see how this is problematic when individual die rolls are normally distributed right?
The dice sequence is dependent on what SMG refers to as "transition matrix" (TM). The random number sequence if conducted in a "serial mode" requires many more random numbers (one for each state) than the TM approach. In Discrete Event Simulation, to go from State A to State B given a probability P, throw 1 random number in a uniform probability distribution between [0,1] and assign State A if the random number is < P, or State B if the random number is > P. Thats for a simple transition of one state to one other. Now if you want to go from State A1, A2, A3...Aa to State B1, B2, B3 ..Bb then you would need an axb size matrix, where the matrix elements correspond to the individual specific transitions. I would think SMG ran say 10 million dice simulations with all types of combinations to populate their overall BlitzMode TM. They have to simulate enough transition states to get whats called The Law of Large Numbers (normal distribution) mean and variance.. The issue is that their matrix element values may be juiced or skewed so when the one dice is thrown Blitz Mode, it might not seem to be in accordance with the probability distribution of the TM.
The Random Number Generator (Merseinne Twister) is a very robust algorithm. However the TM values are not subject to the same statistics as the generator.
If SMG gets the message their TM elements are hosed, then they will correct it.
There is a small probability that 5 armies will prevail against 15.
I just don't play beginner or lower anymore. I don't think there's anything wrong with the dice, although it's burned me a few times with scenarios that seemed unrealistic but that's also the game. But I don't want to waste my time playing beginners anyway. Eventually, SMG should have a system where we can block people from joining our games based on rank and we can have all master games. But for now, I just create games under 3 minute, progressive, classic map and I let it fill, then boot everyone below intermediate, then refill the spots. You have to do it this way or you may run into server errors. If someone leaves as you're booting others, it can cause a server issue. For this reason, if 1 slot is waiting to fill for more than 5 seconds, I'll join with a junk account from another device to make sure no server error and if not, just boot myself lol.
Ever since filters became a part of the game, it's been easier to find higher ranking players. We seem to migrate towards the 3 min games and it actually doesn't take long to fill them, although sometimes so many join at once I am sure some are cheating. Doesn't seem to change my ability to win? haha. Anyway, I am talking about this because maybe others will follow the trend and we can keep making games together and keep booting the low ranked players. I'd really prefer expert+ but without ability to communicate within the game people tend to be impatient and I have to go with lower than I want.
I'm also compiling friends with expert+ players. You'd think eventually I'd have enough friends that I can just start friend only games but it's been rough doing that. Now I think it doesn't even notify you if someone sends a friend request. You just have to both push the friend request button.
I would like everyone to post their rank and number of troops won and number of troops lost. I am a master/grandmaster 85000 won 102000 lost, smg says that is normal.
If you were looking at strictly attacking, you should have more won than lost. But you also have to consider others killing your single territories as being heavily biased towards you losing a lot more over wins. So I think a lot of this comes down to how many games you've won vs how many have been lost. Most of my accounts are just shy of the same number of wins as losses so it would make sense that I'm pretty close for won/lost. If I had won more than lost then I would think the won troops would be higher.
I have several accounts with most having more losses than wins (but relatively close to each other) and they have just slightly less won than lost. One of my accounts, which I opened strictly to practice 4 player games and reached grandmaster relatively quick (apparently I'm good at 4 player games) with 42 wins and only 14 losses, This account has a lot more won than lost.
Steve Clements
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