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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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Yeah, this new dice system is far fetched...but it helps at the begining of the match...it allows following players to have a chance after the first turn of the first player. But still, 23 to 7 ....just flatened me, so upset... Plus i went on a rediculius loosing streak due to this un realistic dice rolloing algorithm. "Sigh" ive bought every add (premium version and all maps) and i am a Grandmaster. Its hard keeping a true statistical record. Its stressful but i deal with it.

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I completely agree!!! The dice rolling is completely ruining it for me!! You usually either roll right through everyone without losing anyone, and then once in a while they make up for it by having you lose every time and everyone you attack, every time, until all your men are gone. Could have 15 to 1. THERE IS NO IN EVEN BETEEEN! Or back and forth. It's really bad.

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It's not the random number generator but how the algorithm uses the random numbers that is far from board play in Blitz mode. SMG offered some clues their Blitz algorithm wasn't true to form. My advice is to avoid Blitz.

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After reading this thread, I began watching more and more battles. Attackers 6 vs 1, 7 vs 2, 8 vs 3 lose very often. I began rolling dice regularly instead of blitz. There are WAY to many sixes being rolled by defenders, especially when rolling only one dice. The number distribution isn't close to what is being shown on the profile page. This really is a huge problem, and I hope smgstudio takes the problem seriously because its messing up games, especially in the first few rounds when troops are at a huge premium. Love the game, but the dice are off because defenders are rolling too many sixes.

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This needs to get fixed.  I just had 24 troops wiped out by 6 attackers.  Then on the flip side I lost 12 people attacking 1.  It happens more often than not.  The odds just are not in the favor of the way this is set up.  It seems to be an ongoing issue.  


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That explains why I notice people able to stream right through kills with higher probability and no random mishaps along the way sometimes. It should be truly random. catastrophe is a part of the game. And they still happen to me but I guess not as much and would be nice if a miracle can happen sometimes.

 


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Posted by Ash over at their official Facebook page: "When we first implemented the code we used random on each individual die. The problem was you got a lot of extreme cases with this. So now we use a probability matrix. There's still edge cases but it's MUCH less than what happens if each dice roll is totally random." Well, now THAT explains it... SMG is NOT using a true RNG, but rather a "probability matrix" (i.e. the dice are rigged, plain and simple). Extreme cases or not, EACH and EVERY single die roll should be rolled as RANDOM, as this is how it would be with REAL-WORLD dice (and apparently, how it is coded in all of the other Risk and Risk-like games that I play... i.e. NO questionable dice rolls).

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Its not the random number generator, but the algorithm that uses it. They seem to have developed thw blitz algorithm apart from summup up independent dice rolls. What they might have done is take the ratio of attacker to defender to weight the outcome. Thats a reasonable approach to save vompute time.

Well, no matter how stacked the odds are, there is only one case where attacker loses all and defender loses none. You should play the lottery if you are getting a 1 out of 357,737 chance 3/5 of the time.


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In my most recent game, I had 32 troops blitz 7. I lost all 32, they lost 0. Using an odds generator: Long-Term Battle Simulation Attacker Won: 100% of the time (357727 of 357737 trials) Average Conquering Army Size: 25 Defender Won: 0% of the time (10 of 357737 trials) Unfortunately for me, this seems to happen much more often than 10 out of 357000 times. Like 3 out of 5 at least.

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SMG - Please use the Merseinne Twister for a RNG.

 

The dice rolls are completely ridiculous. The amount of times I lose all my troops on a 10 v 2 battles is just plain annoying and in no way reflects the odds. The icing on the cake was just now when I had 23 v 5 and I lost all my troops and they only lost 2. The game is just unplayable when it's like this.

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I believe the dice has gotten better since this problem first started. I don't know if they changed anything or not. But I do feel like there is a higher chance of unexpected results than there used to be. I'm much more paranoid about taking on likely to win but not definite to win odds. A good example is 10 to 2. In the old algorithm you could still get burned with this but I'll watch games where several people in the same round get burned by this but then it doesn't happen for the rest of the game. I wish they'd just say what the algorithm is based on and I think everyone would be at ease. Everytime I roll all 1's I get annoyed because I do see it pretty often when i'm doing roll for roll.

 

I read through many of the previous posts and can provide a more thoughtful statement than what I posted last night. The biggest issue objection to a more predictable algorithm seems to be the lack of luck. That is easily addressed with statistical concepts that have been in place to randomize clinical trials since the 1970's. The algorithm can work as true dice 'x' percent of time, and then other times work disproportionately. For example, 90% of the time the algorithm would work as true dice odds, and randomly 10% of the time it could work disproportionately in favor of the underdog. This would allow luck, but preserve rewarding smarter strategy over luck/desperation (it is a strategic game). Plus, true dice odds has a huge element of luck anyway (ask anyone who has played craps). The point is to avoid obscene outcomesmes like 10 losing to 2 on an attack that are nearly statistically impossible and punish the successful strategy to create such an imbalanced face off.
Not true dice rules - please update.

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