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Discussions RISK Global Domination Feature Requests
Implemented

New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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Transition Matrix approach is the worst because 10 armies vs 2 in a 3-dice vs 2 usually wins in successive independent events. Witb the TM, they weight the outcome by 2/10, which means 20% in a [0 1] indep. uniform random number multiplied by 2/3 will win 12% or 1/8 of the time. The move uses 1 random number and is conputationally cheaper for their server. Its a money thing for them. It would cost them more time (money) to represent Blitz accurately.
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Side Note: The thing about pseudo random number generators... No, they are not 100% random, but they are damned close. The same can be applied to Blitz mode. Really weird how all of the other PC (DOS, as well as Windows) versions of Risk, as well as the other Risk clone and dice rolling apps that I have played/used are WAY MORE random than SMG's Risk. The DOS and Windows 3.x versions of Risk have "blitz" types of options, as do versions for Windows 95 and Windows 98, not to mention clones such as Border Siege. IN ALL OF THESE games the dice are dead on. HARDLY EVER are there "questionable rolls", single rolling and "blitz" type rolling alike. I ALSO never see "questionable rolls" in the dice rolling app "Dynamic Dice", or several JavaScript based rolls that can be found around the Internet. Morale of the story, THE DICE NEED TO BE FIXED.
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Professional stochastic modeler here; this game is a complete sham and an utter waste of everyone’s time. The original comment on 97-98% probabilities becoming 50/50 is at the heart of the issue. Sure, the rolls might be evenly distributed but the NBA would blush at the level of “fixing,” going on. Played 100+ games over the last week, and was both the beneficiary and the victim of this incredible design flaw. The app version of the game is like bowling with the bumpers randomly going up and down; DON’T BOTHER! YOU HAVE YOUR WHOLE LIFE TO LIVE! Shame on SMG for failing to hear their customers for OVER TWO YEARS. Look forward to seeing them go under and hoping a competent developer gets the rights. You hear that SMG? You’re as valuable as a 20 on 1 blitz attack that yields 1:1. Useless, frustrating, but most of all, INCOMPETENT. PSA: joined this forum to say YOU HAVE YOUR ENTIRE LIFE TO LIVE!
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I used to like to this game, but deleted all Apps just because these random probabilities made me more angry than happy about gaming. I used to quit every time probabilities were completely arbitrary, then I stopped playing the game. The one start review on Apple store from me. A small revenge for taking my euros.

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I have been collecting data on battle outcomes. I agree with SMG (actually can't disagree with their assertion) that dice roles are random. What is specifically not random are battle outcomes. For example, I have observed a 7 attacking 2 battle lose 4 of 19 times (21%).  I should have seen that happen *maybe* 1 time. This happens too frequently and across too many 'dice paring' combinations to be random. 


In short, the dice rolls may be (pseudo)random, but the battle outcomes are EMPIRICALLY not. 


(MATLAB available on request)

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I have played Risk for 40 years now and love the game.  I used to love playing the online version as the autodice roll solves the time issue known to all that have ever played the board game.  However it introduced the issue that the results I have recieved in the 150 plus games I've played are not anywhere near realistic.  I have raised this with support and went back and forth with a staff that don't really seem to grasp dice probability.  I have come to the point where I had to just delete the game and quit because the concept of strategy is ruined by the randomness of results in the dice.  I'm not talking about one bad roll or two or one or five lost games I'm talking about 150 of them.  I became so frustrated with the upsidedown odds that I kept track of my results in a spreadsheet and shared them with support.  In all the games I have played I would say I win a 3 Dice on 1 attack under 50% of the time; it is the same with a 3 Dice on 2 attack.  I can play brilliantly the whole game go to take out my opponent and lose a 30 on 10 attack and I'm out of the game.  If this happened once I could live with it; hell if it happened 5 times I would be fine.  But crazy results happen every game multiple times a game.  For those that say it the same for everyone I simply don't agree.  If that was true I would expect to win on defense but that doesn't happen on average either.  I could go into the stats but it is a waste of time.  When an attack or defense is just a random outcome it reduces a game that is based on strategy to one of luck.  How about instead of placing our men, plotting out who to attack and when, when to turn in etc. etc. we just all roll a die at the beginning of the game and whoever gets the highest wins the game.  In all honesty that is what this online SMG versions boils down to.  I pulled my hair out going back and forth with support until I read posts on this forum and realized it wasn't just me.  I give up SMG wins.

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Its not the dice rolls thats the problem. The problem is tbe Blitz Transition Matrix probabilities that utilize tge spe ific random number to test against the predefined probability for each transition. SMG has defined the probabilitu for each transition.For example a 10 vs 4 transition probability has been defined as x. If the uniform ra dom number is less tgan x, then its a fail. The issue is their choice of the value x. They need to have a more accurate Transition Matrix.
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I was under the impression that the dice rolls were calculated locally via the device. I believe this because it's possible to lose internet connection, continue rolling and then suddenly find yourself backed up to a previous point where you had already rolled through and have to do it again when it reconnects.

 

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I don't understand the battling system. How does it work exactly. See what I'm seeing since the new update is that numbers don't matter anymore? What I mean is I had a stack of troops 47 strong and my opponent had 7 troops. Now how is it that they took me out only losing 1 of their troops? Also I have many of times had 23 or so troops and lose all but 1 troop going after a territory with only 2 troops. How are these number plausible because if I don't figure this out then I may give up on the entire app. It's frustrating. Can someone explain please.
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After reading this thread, I began watching more and more battles. Attackers 6 vs 1, 7 vs 2, 8 vs 3 lose very often. I began rolling dice regularly instead of blitz. There are WAY to many sixes being rolled by defenders, especially when rolling only one dice. The number distribution isn't close to what is being shown on the profile page. This really is a huge problem, and I hope smgstudio takes the problem seriously because its messing up games, especially in the first few rounds when troops are at a huge premium. Love the game, but the dice are off because defenders are rolling too many sixes.
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It's not the random number generator but how the algorithm uses the random numbers that is far from board play in Blitz mode. SMG offered some clues their Blitz algorithm wasn't true to form. My advice is to avoid Blitz.
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I completely agree!!! The dice rolling is completely ruining it for me!! You usually either roll right through everyone without losing anyone, and then once in a while they make up for it by having you lose every time and everyone you attack, every time, until all your men are gone. Could have 15 to 1. THERE IS NO IN EVEN BETEEEN! Or back and forth. It's really bad.
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Ive played about a thousand games and its only when SMG took over. They implemented a transition matrix approach to Blitz, and although computationally less costly, isnt true to the board game. I also have a PhD in engineering, specifically in "stochastic sequences". So the fact of the matter, the RNG may be good, but the Blitz algorithm that uses it isnt truely random.
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"I want it to roll each one." - Briand / AGREED 100%!
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This needs to get fixed.  I just had 24 troops wiped out by 6 attackers.  Then on the flip side I lost 12 people attacking 1.  It happens more often than not.  The odds just are not in the favor of the way this is set up.  It seems to be an ongoing issue.  

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