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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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I'm willing to bet that doing a million dice rolls didn't take long.  There's no reason that true dice rolls should impact performance on any mobile device built in the last 20 years.  I don't have the old code to look at, but I'm guessing their implementation was broken.  Moving away from "true dice rolls" for performance reasons doesn't make sense.


I don't have time to mess around with the code right now but I'm 99% sure that I could modify the code to use true rolls for both normal and blitz attacks and the performance delta would be undetectable to a human.



Would love to see if you can. Back 2 years ago, if you did blitz with a large army against a somewhat large army, my device would freeze for about a second before the result came in. I ended up getting a more powerful tablet and it was better for still noticeable. My phone was the only device where it would not really do that. And then they changed the code to where it's not noticeable at all.

 Watch it with the word "never." It definitely can and will sometimes happen.


After Ryan broke down the code I feel at ease with the roll-by-roll method. It's actually more accurate than real dice rolls because it takes the actual percentage odds of each scenario. people rolling dice isn't always random. The bad part about this code not using true dice rolls is your dice roll outcome is just a random scenario generated by the algorithm. That scenario where all dice are 1's is much more likely to happen because it's just a random pick from all possible combinations of an attacker losing. Not a big deal because the dice are just for show but why bother showing the dice at all if that's what you're going to do?


However, the blitz code is entirely different and needs to be changed. I don't think the concept of a formula where the attacker always wins if x% of troops above the defender. I'm sure they did this so that an attacker of 200 would never lose against a 2. Statistically speaking, it'll never happen but their code says literally it will never happen which is wrong in the real game. Instead, when you're in a dominant attack, it's a roll to be "unlucky" and when you're unlucky, a random amount of troops is lost. Random? That means it could be more risky running someone down with a super large army vs with a moderate army. This could explain why sometimes when I'm running the map, one battle obliterates my chances of finishing the run with massive and out of proportional troop loss. That CAN happen but the current blitz method is not based on the true game of Risk, it's engineered so that it will not tax the device running the game. Again, Risk was laggy before SMG rehashed the Blitz code about 2 years ago. And the complaints about it have been increasing ever since they changed the code.


The greatest concern about the breakdown of this code is that it's easily hackable. I could probably do it but as soon as I do it, I won't want to play anymore. I play to play not just to win. But knowing that others can easily modify it so that they don't lose so many troops as often ruins my ambition to try and play these "better" players. I think we need to just go to true dice rolls and add more server to how the results are generated.


I know SMG prefers that your individual device does the processing as I';m sure their servers are cheap and not capable of handling so many numbers but maybe they can give the expert players a premium option to pay for where all dice rolls are done via the server and we can care a lot more about who's winning matches. A higher bill for an expert premium option could also thwart cheaters if they had to pay per character instead of per google play account.

I noticed the same thing back in the day. With my simulations I could see that true dice are slower when doing one million large battles. But in game you do one battle at a time so it should be ok. Of course seeing it tested on the actual app would be better.

Dudes, the most important question is this... 


Does anybody think SMG (Shockingly Mediocre Games!) gives a damn, and will try to fix the problems?


SMG can't even be bothered to reply to posters here ffs!


(Yet they have plenty of time to post nonsense on their facebook/twitter feed lol!)


All we can do is hope Hasbro dumps these losers, and gives the game to a professional company who know what they are doing... Amen!

Aitch, I personally think SMG are doing a great job, over all the app is great (better than many out there) it just needs a little refinement but that's the way it goes in development, debugging takes most of the time, and everything can be improved. Furthermore, many "feature" requests are subjective at best and not every idea should be listened to, because it can break other things, etc. And in my experience they respond in a timely manner.

 

Wow, man you have no business on this forum being so negative. If you don't like the game, don't play it. Simple. I've seen nothing but positive comments here in the forums (until yours) and people usually make good points.

 

Why should they be responding to the forums anyways? If you have a bug or feature request, put in a ticket. The forums are for discussions and has little to do with reporting to SMG, getting feedback, or etc. I'm just going to chalk your comment up to to you not knowing how the website works. For future reference, again if you have a gripe, issue or bug to report, submit a ticket. Don't be a dick.

People who won't play beginners are gutless. I was Master, then went down to Novice mainly due to bad luck, Blitz fails, collusion. Dont be a gutless pussy and knock off beginners before the game starts. You never know if they are a former Master working back up

Wow, what a thread. 


Developers - could you please engage a statistician if necessary and post a detailed explanation of the matrix algorithm used, surely you have a data scientist in the team somewhere that skill set. At least that way there is full transparency. Also can you please respond to the allegation that new players are advantaged by design. Neither of these issues will go away unless you address them.

I have a new spin on this...


Not go for pure accuracy, but a dice roll that is SLIGHTLY closer to predictable, but mostly realistic. (In the end it's a game, and supposed to be fun!)


--------------------------- Just in case your dying to dispute this thought ----------------------------------

-First person shooter (CS, COD, Halo, etc.), don't see realistic fatigue added, bone breakage, and more simply because it would suck to break your players leg from jumping off a roof in the game, or can't keep running & jumping constantly for an entire round. Say needs a bench to rest now. Also nice that any ammo clip left on the ground fits you exact gun. Pretty universal clips & bullets. 

-Bowling, ally's typically oil an easier shot during league's to make bowling more fun!

-Poker machines remember # of winners to ensure people win from time to time.

------------------------------------------------------------------


Saying in the end, slightly less real, slightly less disappoint big rolls that nearly end your great game, and slightly more fun for everyone! Don't forget, easy or tough dice, as long as it's the same for everyone... isn't it still fair?

Hey guys, I reverse engineered the Android version, did some experiments on different ways to cheat, and deconstructed the way die rolls work. To encourage open conversation, I posted this offsite on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/Risk/comments/8rbgsy/deconstructed_the_official_android_version_how/

Started reading your thread, immediate thing that jumps out to me was that rolls are made on the client and not the server. I've known this for ages because if your device gets disconnected from the net, you could sweep through several territories before the game decides that you're disconnected and then resets you to the point where you were disconnected. Other proof of it is that the device's processing power also affects how quickly results come out. That wouldn't be the case if it was internet dependent on a server. I'm certain SMG did this so they could cheap out their servers.I don't blame them though. It's not an expensive game. But if we ever start some official tournament or something, it needs to be server based.

Also, I got into this game some 3 years ago I think. And before the SMG logo was appearing (It was straight Hasbro?) the blitz rolls with several armies froze the device pretty hard sometimes. I think the blitz rolls used to be rolled out. But SMG changed it to a probability matrix. Blitz is instantaneous these days.

The greatest concern is with the code granting an automatic win to an attacker of x number of troops over the defender. Losing a "random" amount of troops if unlucky on the probability roll. This explains why the losses can be so catastrophic sometimes. Like losing 30 to a defender's 5. That CAN happen but it happens a lot more than I would expect.


Why can't we just have blitz programmed to be true dice rolls? And why can't single rolls be true dice rolls? It can't be THAT taxing on the device to randomly generate some numbers.


It also makes sense that a hacker can make his rolls more likely to win but still appear like it's fair from losing some troops. I have observed this before, where it seems insane that a guy is only losing a few on his run through the map. Not just lucky I guess.

I played the actual board game the other day, and I was pretty sure the dice statistics were skewed also. However, the actual game roles worked out to be just as bad in many cases. Besides, I agree with other comments saying that as long as each player gets the same odds then it works out. The problem I have is more with attacking defending, the calculation for that seems wrong. I've seen one person with 7 armies defeat someone with more than 30. That would never happen in the actual game and it's either a game exploit, glitch/bug, or bad algorithm. That's just my two cents. Thanks!

Thank you very much, Micheal, actually we are currently preparing the next version which comes with a ton of bugfixes and memory consumption polishing.

Most new features, tweakes and changes are actually implemented because of ideas from the community, coming in via here, email, Facebook messenger e.t.c. (and someone even found out my phone number, I am impressed).

And we are reading here and checking the the findings versus our own knowledge of the code and our own simulations. Actually, the current dice roll implementation has in our tests versus real dice simulations AND Riskodds website calculations never shown a difference beyond 0.X %.

But we are curious and more than happy to discuss, because we believe we are as close to the real thing as possible. Always willing to improve, though.

Best,

Ivan @ SMG

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