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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.

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Matt, I don't think you understand statistics, probability or predictability. I'm guessing your math background is limited. 6 vs 2 is 89% not 100. I can't teach you statistics 101 on this forum. Good 'luck' to you. Btw, I had a battle today of 9vs6, 73% to win, 27% to lose. I lost, that's fine but my opponent lost zero. I'm currently calculating those odds.

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A lot of ansgt in this thread, partially I think because of the mixed messages ("dice rolls are completely fair" according to FAQ vs. "dice rolls need reworking" per this thread). Lee, perhaps if you could clarify, the noise would reduce...

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Factor in your order of play which again has a big outcome in the game then dice rolls are hugely important that they reflect a ..........ohh fu#k it what am I talking about !!!!!!the game is so flawed in so many areas to make skill an options a joke, I'm already bored with it.....sadly I spent my dough on the premier mistake.
lol, why would I do the job of SMG's lazy QA?

I play with a friend that complained about this. I disagreed with him. After doing several begining to end game stat tracks, he agrees now. There really isn't that big a discrepancy if any on dice rolls. We have a tendancy to remember the bad more than the good. If anyone really feels this is wrong, I challenge you to screen record your games, and show me a couple where you just feel it makes no sense.


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As long as there is an equal 1/6 chance for each number to be the result of any dice roll, I think the algorithm reflects real life dice rolling.
I've had a actuary buddy of mine observe a number of games. 100% confirmed Hasbro's "algorithm" is horrifically flawed. My dice rolls were determined statistically impossible. Hasbro needs to get an ACTUAL actuary to design a REAL algorithm for dice rolls that ESPECIALLY takes into account the dynamic nature of 3v2, 3v1, 2v2, 2v1, 1v2 and 1v1. Of course they wouldn't invest that up front. A REAL actuary is not cheap. If they're not making six figures, they're not a REAL actuary that actually know what they're doing. They probably put an undergrad intern on it with the effort to match. Until Hasbro ACTUALLY fixes this, this game cannot be taken seriously, is intended for children, and will continue to be insulting to adults that understand statistics. Going back to to the physical game where reality exists with dice rolls.

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Steve Clements, I think it's fair as long as it's the same for all. I like the fact of unpredictable rolls. I honestly think if the game with a true dice roll system, will make it too easy. You could predict which territory you will win just because you have more guys then they do. The current way makes it very unpredictable, and I kinda like it this way. 

Just because you have 6 troops to their 2, doesn't mean you should win 100% of the time. Every see the movie "300"

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It's not bad now but I think this would be an improvement
I would agree with Sam's comments if 'luck' was an occasional influence to the game but there are too many occasions even during a single game that the dice rolls just do not stack up with ridiculous turnovers. If you want to take strategy and skill out of the scenario then please continue, personally I'm finding it hard to even finish a game under these conditions as it's fast becoming a pointless and tiresome effort.

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SMG, your loyal playerbase accept luck as a core mechanic of Risk and that streaks are inevitably part of that. Please don't do anything funky with the algorithm to placate those blaming "unfair" rolls...

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Yes ever since I've been playing this game I've noticed there is something wonky going on with the dice. Honestly I wouldn't mind a random number generator. It really needs to be fixed to keep people's interest in the game. As for the blitz mechanic, it should really just be a sped up version of normal dice rolling. Rolls tend to go strongly in favor of one side and then when people realize the risks they're taking you end up getting people who just rolled out 20 versus 30 situations and it makes the game take longer. It was meant to make things go faster in the first place.

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Matt, so if the probability is 92% that 4 armies will beat 1 army, you don't care if it's actually 50-50 for everyone? And how can it be fair if it doesn't match true probabilities? When I evaluate my chances of success on an attack it's based on true dice probability, not some weird programming algorithm that I have no idea how to calculate. I.e if 9 on 3 is 95% true dice, but the algorithm makes it 60-40. Now take 8 on 2 with a 97% but the algorithm makes that one 99%. How can that be fair?

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I don't really care how the dice roll, as long as they roll the same for all players = fair

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I see this is now "in progress." May I ask for a general explanation of the algorithm changes being made?

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