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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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I've noticed my roll stats always staying at a consistent 16%. This by itself seems sketch to me. There should be some fluctuations here and there. If I know that even with a small sample of rolls such as a single game, that all players including myself will roll 16% equally, I have a slight inclination on when streaks are likely to occur. For instance, if I just busted something absurd like 3 armies defending and defeating 15 armies, I know that I am less likely to have that happen again. I'll take more chances than I would normally, like attacking a 4 with only 5 armies. This seems to work more than it doesn't. Anyone else have a similar experience?

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Any chance that this is just a blitz problem. I've gone back to rolling everything out(at least at the start of the game when it really counts) and I'm no longer seeing ludicrous wins or loses. Perhaps the random number generator isn't so random when the dice is rolled in quick succession as the blitz implementation might do.

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"many times" doesn't cut it. Gamblers at the roulette table believe the odds of getting "red" change simply because there have been 3 "blacks" in a row. That's not how probabilities work. The do not follow a neat pattern in the short run, only in the "really long run". You want to prove they are wrong, you need to collect a "LOT" of data. True "pseudo random" is not "random", but that's not the questions. The real question is how close is it. Checking the number of times you have rolled each side of the die, in the long run, tells you that. People are generally not very good at reproducing random patterns on their own, they tend to equally space the results out. That's not how random works. Look it up. Fairness has nothing to do with it.. If the rules apply equally to all, then they are fair. My bowling league is a handicap league. Some bowlers get more "free" pins than others. The rules are published. It is not unfair

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I completely agree this request for creating an actual dice roll algorithm.  The current faulty dice wreck games when people get positively screwed and then leave the game.


The faulty dice mechanics are especially damaging to Risk games with Fixed card trade in rather than Progressive due to recovery time.

Sam, I think you confused probability and luck. When you have 11vs3 9vs2 5vs1 are all 97-98% to win. So if you are the small armies in these scenarios, you're 'lucky' to have won. However, if these battles occur 1000 times the favorite will win 975 times or so. Maybe only 920, perhaps 950, maybe 983 or 990. And if you are the underdog in this situation and win you are lucky. Now if after those 1000 battles the favorite only wins 650, 700, even 800 times, then you have skewed data. An impossibility with true dice. And that ain't luck-that's math.
Matt, I don't think you understand statistics, probability or predictability. I'm guessing your math background is limited. 6 vs 2 is 89% not 100. I can't teach you statistics 101 on this forum. Good 'luck' to you. Btw, I had a battle today of 9vs6, 73% to win, 27% to lose. I lost, that's fine but my opponent lost zero. I'm currently calculating those odds.

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A lot of ansgt in this thread, partially I think because of the mixed messages ("dice rolls are completely fair" according to FAQ vs. "dice rolls need reworking" per this thread). Lee, perhaps if you could clarify, the noise would reduce...

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Factor in your order of play which again has a big outcome in the game then dice rolls are hugely important that they reflect a ..........ohh fu#k it what am I talking about !!!!!!the game is so flawed in so many areas to make skill an options a joke, I'm already bored with it.....sadly I spent my dough on the premier version........my mistake.
lol, why would I do the job of SMG's lazy QA?

I play with a friend that complained about this. I disagreed with him. After doing several begining to end game stat tracks, he agrees now. There really isn't that big a discrepancy if any on dice rolls. We have a tendancy to remember the bad more than the good. If anyone really feels this is wrong, I challenge you to screen record your games, and show me a couple where you just feel it makes no sense.

 


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As long as there is an equal 1/6 chance for each number to be the result of any dice roll, I think the algorithm reflects real life dice rolling.
I've had a actuary buddy of mine observe a number of games. 100% confirmed Hasbro's "algorithm" is horrifically flawed. My dice rolls were determined statistically impossible. Hasbro needs to get an ACTUAL actuary to design a REAL algorithm for dice rolls that ESPECIALLY takes into account the dynamic nature of 3v2, 3v1, 2v2, 2v1, 1v2 and 1v1. Of course they wouldn't invest that up front. A REAL actuary is not cheap. If they're not making six figures, they're not a REAL actuary that actually know what they're doing. They probably put an undergrad intern on it with the effort to match. Until Hasbro ACTUALLY fixes this, this game cannot be taken seriously, is intended for children, and will continue to be insulting to adults that understand statistics. Going back to to the physical game where reality exists with dice rolls.

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Steve Clements, I think it's fair as long as it's the same for all. I like the fact of unpredictable rolls. I honestly think if the game with a true dice roll system, will make it too easy. You could predict which territory you will win just because you have more guys then they do. The current way makes it very unpredictable, and I kinda like it this way. 


Just because you have 6 troops to their 2, doesn't mean you should win 100% of the time. Every see the movie "300"

It's not bad now but I think this would be an improvement
I would agree with Sam's comments if 'luck' was an occasional influence to the game but there are too many occasions even during a single game that the dice rolls just do not stack up with ridiculous turnovers. If you want to take strategy and skill out of the scenario then please continue, personally I'm finding it hard to even finish a game under these conditions as it's fast becoming a pointless and tiresome effort.

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