game still fill of dual accounts and dice cheats
I am pretty sure SMG bought this from Hasbro. I got on board when it was only Hasbro. Or maybe they merged. I didn't really look into it; I just know the name changed at one point.
If it helps, I had a game where I had about 35 troops or so going up against 60. I rolled one by one, since the goal was to just beat him down as much as I could without going below 3 troops on my territory. He lost 3 and I lost about 27 to 30 or whatever it was before the timer ran out. I think you guys need to stop blaming Blitz so much. There's a case where it was ridiculous for me as the attacker to lose so much. And I did it roll by roll. So it can happen and it did to me.
Because I seem to remember on the computer version of one of those two versions of games I had like hundred to several hundred troop units on a single territory and with in a single throw of the die it went from that amount to anywhere between 1 to a 2 dozen Risk Troop Units. Now that is true flawed probabilities due to the point of computer cheating.
Yes, balanced blitz solved all of the complaining about "unfair" roles by making the dice less realistic. There really shouldn't be complaining about dice because of this, even though the game is now less interesting if it's used. I always use true random. Skilled players understand that the dice don't always fall exactly on the odds.
I have the same problem. Initially I figured I wasn’t lucky but I experience many many times that I loose with twice the numbers.
There is a common misunderstanding about how probabilities (dice, coin tossing, roulette) work. Randomness with equal probabilities does not guarantee that we will see an even distribution in a game. In the REALLY LONG run (many thousands and thousands) of trials, we would expect to see virtually even distribution, but not in the short run.
The dice have no memory. They do not know what numbers came up on the previous toss. They don't take notes and monitor the history of tosses over time so they can tell #1 to show up more. They just get what they get. You can count cards at poker, but that's because there is a fixed number (52) and the probabilities change based on what cards have been dealt and which remain in the deck. In cards, this is "sampling without replacement". In dice, it's "sampling with replacement". If you roll a 1, that doesn't change the probability of getting a 1 on the next roll. It's still 17%.
It's like you draw a king of hearts, then put it back and reshuffle. The probability of drawing a king of hearts the first time was 2% (1 out of 52). If you put the cards back in, then the chance of drawing the king of hearts remains 2%. The odds don't change.
You'll have to do a statistical analysis to substantiate any of these claims. Take a few hundred samples of blitz runs, record every scenario for troop count and outcome and then report them. I am sure you'll find that it gets pretty close to what it should be statistically. Otherwise, your brain is just remembering the upsetting moments and forgetting the times when everything went to plan, or even in your favor.
Steve Clements
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