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New Dice Algorithm / True dice rolls

Game does not use true dice roll probabilities. Many, many times I've had 97-99% chance to win and dont.


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Ive played about a thousand games and its only when SMG took over. They implemented a transition matrix approach to Blitz, and although computationally less costly, isnt true to the board game. I also have a PhD in engineering, specifically in "stochastic sequences". So the fact of the matter, the RNG may be good, but the Blitz algorithm that uses it isnt truely random.

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What was changed with the new version? All of a sudden I have a significantly increased chance of rolling a one. Before the update I had a 16% equal chance of all probabilities. What was wrong with the last probability algorithm and what was changed to "improve" it? Seem reasonable to provide us with some info SMG!

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Transition Matrix approach is the worst because 10 armies vs 2 in a 3-dice vs 2 usually wins in successive independent events. Witb the TM, they weight the outcome by 2/10, which means 20% in a [0 1] indep. uniform random number multiplied by 2/3 will win 12% or 1/8 of the time. The move uses 1 random number and is conputationally cheaper for their server. Its a money thing for them. It would cost them more time (money) to represent Blitz accurately.

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There's one way to find out if it's offensive and defensive together. Make 2 accounts. Make one single roll on each, record the rolls for offensive/defensive, then check your dice stats to confirm. Anyone got time to confirm this? I'm curious if your stats are only what you roll (yours + defender), only your offense, your offense + your defense.

 


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Well of course everyone gets the same "advantage" or "disadvantage" but if the dice aren't rolling as expected, strategies may need to be changed. In this case, the slight variances in 1's wouldn't change gameplay much. It just means that in small battles that defender has slightly better edge than if the dice were exactly as they should be. It's not enough to sway me from playing, obviously.

Actually, the greatest flaw in my opinion is how long it takes to roll. Your choice is either roll and run out of time or take a risk with a Blitz. In desperate measures, Blitz is fine but sometimes I only want to attack if I can continue to advance. And it's not often I'm willing to attack with only 2 or 1 left when the defender may still have say, 8 or more. They need rapid rolling for these circumstances which happen to me a lot in gameplay. Sometimes, I'm just beating down armies so the next turn can't be offensive. Odds are in favor of the attacker. I always take the offense when I know there's going to be lashback (typically only when it's 1v1)

 


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Side Note: The thing about pseudo random number generators... No, they are not 100% random, but they are damned close. The same can be applied to Blitz mode. Really weird how all of the other PC (DOS, as well as Windows) versions of Risk, as well as the other Risk clone and dice rolling apps that I have played/used are WAY MORE random than SMG's Risk. The DOS and Windows 3.x versions of Risk have "blitz" types of options, as do versions for Windows 95 and Windows 98, not to mention clones such as Border Siege. IN ALL OF THESE games the dice are dead on. HARDLY EVER are there "questionable rolls", single rolling and "blitz" type rolling alike. I ALSO never see "questionable rolls" in the dice rolling app "Dynamic Dice", or several JavaScript based rolls that can be found around the Internet. Morale of the story, THE DICE NEED TO BE FIXED.

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In my most recent game, I had 32 troops blitz 7. I lost all 32, they lost 0. Using an odds generator: Long-Term Battle Simulation Attacker Won: 100% of the time (357727 of 357737 trials) Average Conquering Army Size: 25 Defender Won: 0% of the time (10 of 357737 trials) Unfortunately for me, this seems to happen much more often than 10 out of 357000 times. Like 3 out of 5 at least.

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I was under the impression that the dice rolls were calculated locally via the device. I believe this because it's possible to lose internet connection, continue rolling and then suddenly find yourself backed up to a previous point where you had already rolled through and have to do it again when it reconnects.

 


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Well, no matter how stacked the odds are, there is only one case where attacker loses all and defender loses none. You should play the lottery if you are getting a 1 out of 357,737 chance 3/5 of the time.


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Risk employees will always maintain that the dice do NOT favor anyone. They are stubborn about this.  The reality as experienced is quite different. They are not running an honest game. Example 15v4 the 15 gets wiped out and the 4 stands. They will not listen to experience. It is pointless to try and work with them.


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I'd love to know the difference of true odds vs their algorithm for these larger armies, mostly concerning average troops lost. How much worse does it look for the attacker as more and more troops exist? 


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I play with a friend that complained about this. I disagreed with him. After doing several begining to end game stat tracks, he agrees now. There really isn't that big a discrepancy if any on dice rolls. We have a tendancy to remember the bad more than the good. If anyone really feels this is wrong, I challenge you to screen record your games, and show me a couple where you just feel it makes no sense.

 


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 Yeah every time I play a game in the app version I experience something wonky and come here to find out if it's just my imagination or if it's really happening.


I just played a game where I was wiped out in 3 turns.  I went head to head with a guy to start off.....we both had almost exactly the same number of troops to start off with.  In three attacks he wiped out all but 2 of my guys and he lost 5 troops total.


I get that rolling a die is random but three straight turns he wiped me out while losing 5 troops total? 


I'm just wondering is the roll system in the game something that can be hacked?  I mean if a player wanted to could they rig it in their favor? 


There's so many things about this game that are infuriating.  I'm pretty decent at risk, I understand the strategy of the game and have played the board game for years.  I win fairly often in real games but the online version seems to either be just dumb random luck or rigged.


Between players using more than one account and the (seemingly) busted rolling system it really takes the skill out of the game.




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I completely agree!!! The dice rolling is completely ruining it for me!! You usually either roll right through everyone without losing anyone, and then once in a while they make up for it by having you lose every time and everyone you attack, every time, until all your men are gone. Could have 15 to 1. THERE IS NO IN EVEN BETEEEN! Or back and forth. It's really bad.

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"I want it to roll each one." - Briand / AGREED 100%!

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